Australia’s plan to cap international student numbers faces criticism

The Australian government’s proposal to limit overseas student enrolments has come under fire from a leading policy analyst, who argues that the plan could inflict unnecessary damage on the education sector and related industries.

Andrew Norton, a professor at the Australian National University (ANU), warns that the proposed caps could have severe consequences.

“Some education providers will close and others will shrink,” he states in a report published by ANU's Migration Hub. “Thousands of people… in the education sector will lose their jobs. Industries relying on international students as workers and customers will go into decline.”

Norton argues that the government’s objective of reducing migration has likely already been achieved through a series of other policy interventions.

He suggests that “international education policy needs a period of pause and reflection, not the current poorly thought through plan to cap international student numbers.”

The implementation of the caps has been criticised for its hasty timeline and potential unintended consequences.

Norton points out that institutions may be forced to cancel enrolments and could face financial losses due to the uncertainties surrounding student acceptances and visa approvals.

Moreover, government agencies themselves have expressed concerns about the feasibility of implementing the caps.

The Department of Home Affairs, along with higher education and vocational education regulators, have highlighted data issues that could hinder the implementation process.

Norton also criticises the government’s approach to calculating the caps, which includes students who have completed their courses. This method, he argues, could force institutions to prioritise commencements at the beginning of the year, despite many international students preferring mid-year starts.

The policy analyst suggests that the numerous recent changes to international education policies have already had a significant impact on the sector.

“We should wait and see rather than rushing into caps,” Norton advises, emphasising the need for time to assess the effects of existing reforms.

Education Minister Jason Clare defends the government’s position, stating that international students have “come back much faster than we ever expected” post-Covid.

He argues that the reforms aim to “help maintain the social licence of the sector and enable it to grow sustainably over time.”

However, Norton contends that the recent surge in overseas student arrivals is a “by-product” of Covid “disruption” and that government forecasts had already predicted a return to pre-Covid norms in the coming years.

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